Laka Foundation

Publication Laka-library:
Assessment of Impact of Russian Nuclear Fleet Operations on Russian Far East Costal Regions (2002)

AuthorA.Mahura, IIASA
6-07-5-31-03.pdf
Date2002
Classification 6.07.5.31/03 (MISCELLANEOUS - NUCLEAR POWER AT SEA - USSR/RUSSIA GENERAL)
Front

From the publication:

Interim Report IR-02-004

Assessment of Impact of Russian Nuclear Fleet Operations on Russian
Far Eastern Coastal Regions

Abstract
The main purpose of this study is evaluation of the atmospheric transport of
pollutants from the Vladivostok and Kamchatka nuclear risk sites (NRSs) - nuclear 
submarines and radioactive storage facilities - located at the Russian Far East.
The evaluation is given from the probabilistic point of view. The main question is:
What is the probability for radionuclide atmospheric transport to the neighboring
countries in the case of an accident at the nuclear risk sites in the Russian Far East?

To answer this question, we applied two research tools. The first tool is the
isentropic atmospheric trajectory model to calculate trajectories originating
at two NRSs. The second tool is thestatistical analyses - exploratory, cluster, and
probability field analyses - to explore the structure of the calculated trajectory
data sets seasonally, monthly, and year-to-year. The selected regions of potential
impact due to atmospheric transport – Japan, China, North and South Koreas, State of
Alaska, and Aleutian Chain Islands. Additionally, we discussed possible approaches
to investigate impacts of the radionuclide removal processes during atmospheric
transport.