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Scenarios for phasing out nuclear energy in Germany: Expert opinions and Studies on economic and social policy

Auteur	Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, B.Knopf
	2-01-0-00-80.pdf
Datum	oktober 2011
Classificatie	2.01.0.00/80 (DUITSLAND - ALGEMEEN)
Voorkant

           Summary




           The exit from nuclear energy planned by the           government decisions (for example, the decisions
           German government presents a number of op-            of the former coalition of Christian Democrats
           portunities but also harbours risks. This study       and Social Democrats in 2007, the so-called
           shows that electricity prices for private house-      “Meseberg decisions”). This includes, in particu-
           holds will be only slightly affected by withdrawal.   lar, measures to expand renewable energy and
           The competitiveness of the German economy is          cogeneration, as well as reductions in energy con-
           also unlikely to be affected severely since elec-     sumption. The planned exit will once again make
           tricity prices for industry and large companies       these measures the focus of energy policy. An im-
           will increase only temporarily. However, the CO2      portant aspect of the analysis presented here is a
           emissions of the German electricity sector could      discussion of the additional challenges which
           rise, depending on the timing of the exit from        would arise if the exit takes place not, in accord-
           nuclear energy. In addition, if security of supply    ance with the previously valid Nuclear Energy
           is to be guaranteed, besides the expansion of         Act (Atomgesetz; AtG), in 2022, but is completed
           renewable energy new fossil fuel-fired power          earlier (for example in 2020 or 2015).
           stations must be built or older plants permitted           In order to assess the implications for effi-
           to remain operational for longer than originally      ciency, environmental sustainability and security
           planned.                                              of supply in the case of different exit times in this
                 Against the background of the objectives        study model-based analyses of the development
           of efficiency, environmental sustainability and       of electricity prices and CO2 emissions will be
           security of supply laid down in the Energy Mana-      conducted for a series of exit scenarios: Exit 2015,
           gement Act (Energiewirtschaftsgesetz) the phas-       Exit 2020, Exit 2022 (that is in accordance with
           ing out of nuclear energy must be done in such a      the Nuclear Energy Act AtG 2002 in force until
           way that electricity prices remain affordable for     autumn last year and also valid for the recent
           industry and consumers, security of supply is not     decision taken in July 2011), and Exit 2038 (that
           jeopardised and the goals of climate protection       is in accordance with the Nuclear Energy Act
           can be achieved over the long term. These energy      AtG 2010 that was valid from October 2010 to
           policy aims will be achieved only if the exit from    July 2011). Besides the expansion of renewable
           nuclear energy also marks an entry into a new         energy, the various effects of gas- as opposed to
           energy policy. The resolution of possible conflicts   coal-fired power stations as replacements for
           of aims was discussed in connection with the de-      nuclear energy are examined and further alter-
           cision on phasing out nuclear energy in 2002 and      native scenarios explored.
           has already been addressed in the form of specific