Publication Laka-library:
Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis. Dispersion and deposition uncertainty assessment. Vol.1. Main report (NUREG/CR-6244) (1995)
| Author | US NRC, CEC |
| Date | 1995 |
| Classification | 6.01.3.70/54 (NUCLEAR SAFETY - RISK ANALYSES / RISK PERCEPTION) |
| Front | 
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From the publication:
Executive Summary Introduction The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) have co-sponsored an uncertainty analysis of their respective probabilistic consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA. Although uncertainty analyses have been performed for the predecessors of MACCS and COSYMA, the distributions for the input variables were largely developed by the code developers rather than the experts involved in the numerous phenomenological areas of a consequence analysis. In addition, both organizations were aware of the key role of uncertainty in decisions involving the prioritization of activities and research, and they were interested in initiating a comprehensive assessment of the uncertainty in consequence calculations used for risk assessments and regulatory purposes. Therefore, the ultimate objective of the NRC/CEC joint effort is to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables using a formal expert judgment elicitation process. Expert judgment techniques are to be used only for the most important code input parameters in terms of contribution to the uncertainty in code predictions. Less resource intensive methods will be used for the development of uncertainty distributions for the remainder of the code input parameters. Each organization will then propagate and quantify the uncertainty in the predictions produced by their respective codes. Because of the magnitude and expense required to complete a full-scale consequence uncertainty analysis, a trial study was performed to evaluate the feasibility of such a joint study by initially limiting efforts to the dispersion and deposition code input variables. The specific goals of the trial study were as follows: (l) to develop a library of uncertainty distributions in the areas of radionuclide dispersion and deposition by using a formal expert judgment elicitation process; (2) to determine whether the technology exists for the development of credible uncertainty distributions on the input variables of MACCS and COSYMA; (3) to evaluate the ability of teams from the CEC and NRC to work together effectively. This report will focus on the methods used in and results of this trial study.
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