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Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis. Food chain uncertainty assessment. Vol.1. Main report (NUREG/CR-6523) (1997)

AuthorUS NRC, CEC
DateJune 1997
Classification 6.01.3.70/57 (NUCLEAR SAFETY - RISK ANALYSES / RISK PERCEPTION)
Front

From the publication:

Executive Summary

Introduction

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the European Commission (EC) 
have co-sponsored an uncertainty analysis of their respective probabilistic 
consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA. Although uncertainty analyses have been 
performed for the predecessors of MACCS and COSYMA, the distributions for the input 
variables were largely developed by the code developers rather than by the experts 
involved in the numerous phenomenological areas of a consequence analysis. In 
addition, both organizations were aware of the importance of using uncertainty 
analysis in making decisions on prioritizing activities and research; they were 
also interested in initiating a comprehensive assessment of the uncertainty in 
the consequence calculations used for risk assessments and regulatory purposes. 
Therefore, the ultimate objective of the NRC/EC joint effort is to systematically 
develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code 
input variables using a formal expert judgment elicitation process.

The specific goals of this study are to: (1) develop a library of uncertainty 
distributions for the processes of radionuclide distribution in the food chain by using
 a formal expert judgment elicitation process, and (2) further determine whether the 
technology is appropriate for the development of credible uncertainty distributions 
on the input variables of the food chain models used in MACCS (COMIDA) and 
COSYMA (FARMLAND). This report focuses on the methods used in the food 
chain study and its results.

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