Publication Laka-library:
Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis. Uncertainty assessment for deposited material and external doses. Vol.1. Main rep.(NUREG/CR-6526) (1997)
| Author | |
| Date | December 1997 |
| Classification | 6.01.3.70/52 (NUCLEAR SAFETY - RISK ANALYSES / RISK PERCEPTION) |
| Front | 
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From the publication:
Executive Summary Introduction The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the European Commission (EC) have co-sponsored an uncertainty analysis of their respective probabilistic consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA. Although uncertainty analyses have been performed for the predecessors of MACCS and COSYMA, the distributions for the input variables were largely developed by the code developers rather than the experts involved in the numerous phenomenological areas of a consequence analysis. In addition, both organizations were aware of the importance of using uncertainty analysis in making decisions on the prioritization of activities and research; they were also interested in initiating a comprehensive assessment of the uncertainty in the consequence calculations used for risk assessments and regulatory purposes. Therefore, the ultimate objective of the NRC/EC joint effort is to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables using a formal expert judgment elicitation process. The specific goals of this study are to: (1) develop a library of uncertainty distributions for external doses from deposited radionuclides by using a formal expert judgment elicitation process and (2) further determine whether the technology is appropriate for the development of credible uncertainty distributions on the input variables of the external dose models for deposited materials used in MACCS and COSYMA. This report focuses on the methods used and the results of the study of deposited materials and external doses.
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