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Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis. Uncertainty assessment for deposited material and external doses. Vol.1. Main rep.(NUREG/CR-6526) (1997)

Auteur
Datum	december 1997
Classificatie	6.01.3.70/52 (VEILIGHEID - RISICO-ANALYSES & -BELEVING)
Voorkant

Executive Summary

Introduction

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the European Commission 
(EC) have co-sponsored an uncertainty analysis of their respective probabilistic 
consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA. Although uncertainty analyses have 
been performed for the predecessors of MACCS and COSYMA, the distributions for 
the input variables were largely developed by the code developers rather than the 
experts involved in the numerous phenomenological areas of a consequence analysis.
In addition, both organizations were aware of the importance of using uncertainty 
analysis in making decisions on the prioritization of activities and research; they 
were also interested in initiating a comprehensive assessment of the uncertainty in 
the consequence calculations used for risk assessments and regulatory purposes. 
Therefore, the ultimate objective of the NRC/EC joint effort is to systematically 
develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code 
input variables using a formal expert judgment elicitation process.

The specific goals of this study are to: (1) develop a library of uncertainty 
distributions for external doses from deposited radionuclides by using a formal 
expert judgment elicitation process and (2) further determine whether the technology 
is appropriate for the development of credible uncertainty distributions on the input 
variables of the external dose models for deposited materials used in MACCS and 
COSYMA. This report focuses on the methods used and the results of the study of 
deposited materials and external doses.

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