Publication Laka-library:
Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis. Early health effects uncertainty assessment. Vol.1. Main report (NUREG/CR-6545) (1997)
| Author | US NRC, CEC |
| Date | December 1997 |
| Classification | 6.01.3.70/59 (NUCLEAR SAFETY - RISK ANALYSES / RISK PERCEPTION) |
| Front | 
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From the publication:
Executive Summaryx Introduction The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the European Commission (EC) have co-sponsored an uncertainty analysis of their respective probabilistic consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA. Although uncertainty analyses have been performed for the predecessors of MACCS and COSYMA, the distributions for the input variables were largely developed by the code developers rather than by the experts involved in the numerous phenomenological areas of a consequence analysis. In addition, both organizations were aware of the importance of using uncertainty analysis in making decisions on prioritizing activities and research; they were also interested in initiating a comprehensive assessment of the uncertainty in the consequence calculations used for risk assessments and regulatory purposes. Therefore, the ultimate objective of the NRC/EC joint effort is to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables using a formal expert judgment elicitation process. The specific goal of this study is to develop a library of uncertainty distributions by using a formal expert judgment elicitation process on the input variables of the risk coefficients used in MACCS and COSYMA. This report focuses on the methods used in the study on early health effects and its results.
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