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Publicatie Laka-bibliotheek:
Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis. Early health effects uncertainty assessment. Vol.1. Main report (NUREG/CR-6545) (1997)

AuteurUS NRC, CEC
Datumdecember 1997
Classificatie 6.01.3.70/59 (VEILIGHEID - RISICO-ANALYSES & -BELEVING)
Voorkant

Uit de publicatie:

Executive Summaryx

Introduction

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the European Commission (EC) 
have co-sponsored an uncertainty analysis of their respective probabilistic 
consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA. Although uncertainty analyses have been 
performed for the predecessors of MACCS and COSYMA, the distributions for the input 
variables were largely developed by the code developers rather than by the experts 
involved in the numerous phenomenological areas of a consequence analysis. In 
addition, both organizations were aware of the importance of using uncertainty 
analysis in making decisions on prioritizing activities and research; they were 
also interested in initiating a comprehensive assessment of the uncertainty in the 
consequence calculations used for risk assessments and regulatory purposes. 
Therefore, the ultimate objective of the NRC/EC joint effort is to systematically 
develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code 
input variables using a formal expert judgment elicitation process.

The specific goal of this study is to develop a library of uncertainty distributions 
by using a formal expert judgment elicitation process on the input variables of the 
risk coefficients used in MACCS and COSYMA. This report focuses on the methods 
used in the study on early health effects and its results.

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