Publication Laka-library:
Risks and consequences of nuclear weapons accidents in South Asia: PU/CEES Report No.326 (2000)
| Author | Zia Mian, Ramana, Rajaraman |
| Date | 2000 |
| Classification | 6.01.4.50/40 (RADIATION - CONSEQUENCES NUCLEAR TESTS) |
| Front | 
|
From the publication:
Risks and Consequences of Nuclear Weapons Accidents in South Asia Abstract We analyze the dispersal of plutonium into the atmosphere and consequent biological hazards from nuclear weapon accidents. Such accidents involving nuclear weapons could be caused, for example, by missile and jet fuel fires and explosions - and have occurred on a number of occasions to US nuclear weapons. We use the Wedge Model of aerosol dispersal to estimate the amount of plutonium that would be inhaled by a surrounding population and the resulting radiological damage in the form of increased cancer fatalities in the event of such an accident. Our results suggest that such an accident in or near a large South Asian city could lead to about 5000 cancer deaths, and perhaps four times as many. In the event of an accident at a military base at some distance from a medium-sized city, there could be 200 - 800 cancer deaths. Therefore, prudence would dictate that India and Pakistan not deploy nuclear weapons or store them close to aircraft or ballistic missiles. Keeping the weapons disassembled would further reduce the risk of accidental detonation.
This publication is only available at Laka on paper, not as pdf.
You can borrow the publication or request a copy. When we're available, this is possible for a small fee.