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Publicatie Laka-bibliotheek:
Risks and consequences of nuclear weapons accidents in South Asia: PU/CEES Report No.326 (2000)

Auteur	Zia Mian, Ramana, Rajaraman
Datum	2000
Classificatie	6.01.4.50/40 (STRALING - GEVOLGEN - KERNPROEVEN)
Voorkant

Risks and Consequences of Nuclear Weapons Accidents in South Asia

Abstract

We analyze the dispersal of plutonium into the atmosphere and consequent biological
hazards from nuclear weapon accidents. Such accidents involving nuclear weapons
could be caused, for example, by missile and jet fuel fires and explosions - and have
occurred on a number of occasions to US nuclear weapons. We use the Wedge Model
of aerosol dispersal to estimate the amount of plutonium that would be inhaled by a
surrounding population and the resulting radiological damage in the form of increased
cancer fatalities in the event of such an accident. Our results suggest that such an
accident in or near a large South Asian city could lead to about 5000 cancer deaths,
and perhaps four times as many. In the event of an accident at a military base at some
distance from a medium-sized city, there could be 200 - 800 cancer deaths. Therefore,
prudence would dictate that India and Pakistan not deploy nuclear weapons or store
them close to aircraft or ballistic missiles. Keeping the weapons disassembled would
further reduce the risk of accidental detonation.

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