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Publicatie Laka-bibliotheek:
Prospects for Saskatchewan's nuclear industry... (1991)

AuteurAECL
Datumoktober 1991
Classificatie 3.02.0.00/13 (CANADA - ALGEMEEN)
Voorkant

Uit de publicatie:

Executive Summary

Uranium mining is an important industry in Saskatchewan. In 1990 it provided 2.125 
person years of employment producing 16 million pounds U3O8. A combination of 
excessive inventories and new supply from the USSR is reflected in the very low spot 
price for uranium, currently less than US $10 per pound. However, as inventories are 
reduced to normal levels, prices are generally expected to strengthen to the US $20 
range by the mid 1990's, a level required to bring forth sufficient mine production 
to meet demand. With large high grade reserves in place, Saskatchewan producers 
should be able to attain a 30% world market share and sustain this level at least 
through the year 2020. With the depletion of the Key Lake mine, about 20 million 
pounds of new mining capacity will have to be developed by the year 2000 to support 
33 million pounds of annual sales. This will generate annual employment estimated at 
3,365 person years.

Over the period 1991-2020 the uranium mining industry has the potential of 
contributing over $10 billion to Gross Saskatchewan Expenditures, over $7 billion 
to the provincial GDP, gross employment of over 100,000 person years, and Labour 
Income approaching $4 billion. Based on the 1989 Saskatchewan Economic Indictors, 
the average annualized uranium industry activity represents 1.3% of GDP and 1.4% 
of Labour Income.

From a strong uranium mining base, there is excellent potential for developing other 
areas of the nuclear fuel cycle in Saskatchewan, particularly enrichment, electrical 
generation, and used fuel disposal.

If the current R & D efforts by Cameco and Isotope Technologies are successful in 
developing the Crisla enrichment process, a small commercial plant of 250,000 SWU 
could be constructed by 1997 and then expanded progressively as markets are 
developed. If Crisla is not proven economic then a facility based on conventional 
centrifuge technology would be another possibility.

By the year 2000, including operation of the new Shand coal-fired station and the 
implementation of certain demand management measures, a shortfall of at least 
400 MW of electrical generating capacity is projected. By 2005 normal demand 
growth and the planned retirement of the Queen Elizabeth coal-fired station in 
Saskatoon would increase this shortfall to at least 850 MW. Of the five potential 
sources for additional electricity supply in Saskatchewan (hydro, coal, natural gas, 
other technologies, and nuclear), nuclear power offers a number of advantages. A 
Candu-3 prototype would receive substantial financial support from the Federal 
Government. A successful Candu-3 project could result in a new Saskatchewan based 
export-oriented industry. The high initial capital cost of nuclear power is mitigated 
by the lower operating cost compared to coal-fired plants. Nuclear plants have no 
atmospheric emissions to contribute to the greenhouse effect or acid rain.

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