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Publicatie Laka-bibliotheek:
Fissile material in South Asia and implications of US-India nuclear deal (2006)

Auteur	Mian, Zayyar, Rajaraman, Ramana
	-
Datum	juli 2006
Classificatie	4.02.0.00/03 (PAKISTAN - ALGEMEEN)
Voorkant

IPFM Review Draft

Summary

The July 2005 US-India joint statement represents a fundamental transformation 
of U.S.-Indiarelations and at the same time a challenge to the disarmament and 
non-proliferation regimes.There is concern that the March 2006 separation plan 
proposed by India for demarcating its military and civilian nuclear facilities may 
allow a potentially rapid expansion of its capacity forfissile material production 
for weapons.

In this analysis, we have assessed fissile material production capabilities in India 
and how they might change as a result of the U.S.-India deal.

India may already have a stockpile of about 500 kg of weapons grade plutonium 
from CIRUS and Dhruva reactors, sufficient for roughly a hundred nuclear warheads. 
Under the deal, India will be able to produce another 45 kg of weapons grade 
plutonium from the CIRUS reactor before it is shut down in 2010. The Dhruva reactor 
will continue to operate and add about 20-25kg/year. A second Dhruva-sized reactor 
that is being considered would add a similar amounteach year.

However, the most important potential increase in India’s weapons grade 
plutonium production will come from the Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR), 
to be completed in 2010, that the deal proposes to place inside the military fence. 
We have estimated that this reactor can produceon the order of 130-140 kg of 
weapons grade plutonium each year, a four-fold increase in India’s current 
production capability.

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