Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2030
|Classificatie||6.01.0.20/114 (BELANG MONDIAAL)|
Uit de publicatie:
INTRODUCTION Reference Data Series No. 1 is an annual publication — currently in its twenty-ninth edition — containing estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the year 2030. Nuclear data presented in Table 1 are based on actual statistical data collected by the IAEA’s Power Reactor Information System (PRIS). Energy and electricity data for 2008, however, are estimated, since the latest available information from the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations is for 2006. Population data originate from the World Population Prospects (2008 Revision), published by the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, and the 2008 values are estimates. The future growth of energy, electricity and nuclear power up to the year 2030 is presented as low and high estimates in order to encompass the uncertainties asso- ciated with the future. These estimates should be viewed as very general growth trends whose validity must con- stantly be subjected to critical review. The energy forecasts carried out in increasing numbers over the last years by international, national and private organizations are based on a multiplicity of different assumptions and different aggregating procedures, which make their comparison and synthesis very difficult. The basic differences refer to such fundamental input data as: — World and regional scenarios of economic develop- ment; — Correlation of economic growth and energy con- sumption; — Assumptions on physical, economic and political constraints applying to energy production and con- sumption; — Future prices of different energy sources. The projections presented in this booklet are based on a compromise among: — National projections supplied by each country for a recent OECD/NEA study; — Indicators of development published by the World Bank in its World Development Indicators; — Estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power growth continuously carried out by the IAEA in the wake of recent global and regional projections made by other international organizations. The nuclear generating capacity estimates presented in Table 3 are derived from a country by country ‘bottom-up’ approach. They are established by a group of experts par- ticipating each year in the IAEA’s consultancy on Nuclear Capacity Projections and based upon a review of nuclear power projects and programmes in Member States. The low and high estimates reflect contrasting but not extreme underlying assumptions on the different driving factors that have an impact on nuclear power deployment. These factors, and the ways they might evolve, vary from country to country. The estimates presented provide a plausible range of nuclear capacity growth by region and worldwide. They are not intended to be predictive nor to reflect the whole range of possible futures from the lowest to the highest feasible. The low case represents expectations about the future if current trends continued and there were few changes in policies affecting nuclear power other than those already in the pipeline. This case was explicitly designed to pro- duce a “conservative but plausible” set of projections. Additionally, the low case did not automatically assume that targets for nuclear power growth in a particular coun- try would necessarily be achieved. These assumptions are relaxed in the high case. The high case projections are much more optimistic, but still plausible and technically feasible. The high case assumes that the current financial and economic crises will be overcome in the not so distant future and past rates of economic growth and electricity demand, especially in the Far East, would essentially resume. In addition, the high case assumes the implementation of policies target- ed at mitigating climate change. In the presence of the current financial and economic crises developing the 2009 nuclear power projections posed a considerable challenge. The 2009 projections are based on the rationale that the long lead times associated with the implementation of nuclear power plants may tem- porarily delay some projects but the underlying funda- mentals of population growth, development, demand for electricity, climate change concerns, security of energy supply and the quest for stable electricity generating costs point to continued strong growth in the longer term. Worsening and prolonged economic/financial difficulties could, however, dramatically affect the projections devel- oped, particularly in the high case.