Publicatie Laka-bibliotheek:
Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2030

AuteurIAEA
6-01-0-20-114.pdf
Datum2009
Classificatie 6.01.0.20/114 (BELANG MONDIAAL)
Voorkant

Uit de publicatie:

                 INTRODUCTION



  Reference Data Series No. 1 is an annual publication —
currently in its twenty-ninth edition — containing estimates
of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the
year 2030.

  Nuclear data presented in Table 1 are based on actual
statistical data collected by the IAEA’s Power Reactor
Information System (PRIS). Energy and electricity data for
2008, however, are estimated, since the latest available
information from the Department of Economic and Social
Affairs of the United Nations is for 2006. Population data
originate from the World Population Prospects (2008
Revision), published by the Population Division of the UN
Department of Economic and Social Affairs, and the 2008
values are estimates.

  The future growth of energy, electricity and nuclear
power up to the year 2030 is presented as low and high
estimates in order to encompass the uncertainties asso-
ciated with the future. These estimates should be viewed
as very general growth trends whose validity must con-
stantly be subjected to critical review.

  The energy forecasts carried out in increasing numbers
over the last years by international, national and private
organizations are based on a multiplicity of different
assumptions and different aggregating procedures,
which make their comparison and synthesis very difficult.
The basic differences refer to such fundamental input data
as:

 — World and regional scenarios of economic develop-
   ment;
 — Correlation of economic growth and energy con-
   sumption;
 — Assumptions on physical, economic and political
   constraints applying to energy production and con-
   sumption;
 — Future prices of different energy sources.


  The projections presented in this booklet are based on
a compromise among:

    — National projections supplied by each country for a
      recent OECD/NEA study;
    — Indicators of development published by the World
      Bank in its World Development Indicators;
    — Estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power
      growth continuously carried out by the IAEA in the
      wake of recent global and regional projections made
      by other international organizations.

   The nuclear generating capacity estimates presented in
Table 3 are derived from a country by country ‘bottom-up’
approach. They are established by a group of experts par-
ticipating each year in the IAEA’s consultancy on Nuclear
Capacity Projections and based upon a review of nuclear
power projects and programmes in Member States.

  The low and high estimates reflect contrasting but not
extreme underlying assumptions on the different driving
factors that have an impact on nuclear power deployment.
These factors, and the ways they might evolve, vary from
country to country. The estimates presented provide a
plausible range of nuclear capacity growth by region and
worldwide. They are not intended to be predictive nor to
reflect the whole range of possible futures from the lowest
to the highest feasible.

  The low case represents expectations about the future if
current trends continued and there were few changes in
policies affecting nuclear power other than those already
in the pipeline. This case was explicitly designed to pro-
duce a “conservative but plausible” set of projections.
Additionally, the low case did not automatically assume
that targets for nuclear power growth in a particular coun-
try would necessarily be achieved. These assumptions
are relaxed in the high case.

  The high case projections are much more optimistic, but
still plausible and technically feasible. The high case
assumes that the current financial and economic crises
will be overcome in the not so distant future and past rates
of economic growth and electricity demand, especially in
the Far East, would essentially resume. In addition, the
high case assumes the implementation of policies target-
ed at mitigating climate change.

  In the presence of the current financial and economic
crises developing the 2009 nuclear power projections
posed a considerable challenge. The 2009 projections are
based on the rationale that the long lead times associated
with the implementation of nuclear power plants may tem-
porarily delay some projects but the underlying funda-
mentals of population growth, development, demand for
electricity, climate change concerns, security of energy
supply and the quest for stable electricity generating costs
point to continued strong growth in the longer term.
Worsening and prolonged economic/financial difficulties
could, however, dramatically affect the projections devel-
oped, particularly in the high case.