Publicatie Laka-bibliotheek:
Explaining the Political Outcomes of Social Movements: Anti-Nuclear Energy Mobilization in 18 OECD Countries before the Chernobyl Accident

AuteurFelix Kolb
6-09-0-00-54.pdf
Datum2006
Classificatie 6.09.0.00/54 (VERZET INTERNATIONAAL - ALGEMEEN)
Opmerking Second Draft
Voorkant

Uit de publicatie:

Explaining the Political Outcomes of Social Movements: Anti-Nuclear Energy Mobiliza-

                  tion in 18 OECD Countries before the Chernobyl Accident 1




                                           - Second Draft -




                                              Felix Kolb




1
    This research was supported by a scholarship awarded to the author by the German National Merit
Foundation. I am grateful also to Jai Kwan Jung, Mundo Yang, Dieter Rucht, and Simon Teune for
comments on earlier versions of this article. Direct correspondence to Felix Kolb, Die Bewegungss-
tiftung, Artilleriestr. 6, D-27283 Verden, Germany. E-mail: kolb@bewegungsstiftung.de
Explaining the Political Outcomes of Social Movements: Anti-Nuclear Energy Mobiliza-

tion in 18 OECD Countries before the Chernobyl Accident




Abstract:

This article argues that we can substantially improve our ability to explain movement out-

comes by not omitting independent variables and by theorizing the causal processes of politi-

cal change. Based on this formula the impact of the anti-nuclear energy movement across 18

OECD countries is examined using quantitative and qualitative methods in a nested research

design. Results show that the viability of movement goals, public opinion, elite conflict, and

political institutional structures determined the impact on nuclear programs, but the relevance

of different political opportunities were contingent on the goal pursued by the movement.

Different combinations of causal mechanisms are demonstrated to have caused the reductions

in nuclear program size across countries. Whether anti-nuclear mobilization succeeded in ac-

tivating a causal mechanism, depended on the presence of certain opportunities, on which the

political effectiveness of different tactics is dependent.
INTRODUCTION

    When and why are social movements successful in their struggle for social and political

change? When and why do they fail? These probing questions