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Publicatie Laka-bibliotheek:
Tussenrapport Bijlage 5, Deel 3: Consequenties voor milieu met betrekking tot industrieel herstel- en arbeidsdelings-scenario (1983)

Auteur	Stuurgroep BMD, Metra Consulting Group
Datum	januari 1983
Classificatie	1.01.1.10/30 (OPINIE - BREDE MAATSCHAPPELIJKE DISCUSSIE)
Opmerking	Bijlage 5 Deel 3 bij Het Tussenrapport
Voorkant

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

The following report investigates the environmental consequences of two 
alternative sets of scenarios of economic growth and energy use in the Netherlands 
up to and including the year 2000. The scenarios were provided specially for the 
purposes of the study and do not necessarily fully reflect the view of the Steering 
Group.

The alternative scenarios are based on different economic growth rates, a 'high-
growth' (HG) scenario based on some 2.5% per annum growth, and a 'low-growth'
(LG) scenario based on about 1.5% per annum growth. The patterns of growth in 
each scenario are similar, with the chemicals and metals sectors dominant. Growth 
in these sectors will not, however, be uniform across the spectrum of products 
comprising the sector. Although manufacture of traditional commodity materials 
will continue to grow, the rate of growth will be much lower than those for new, 
high value, low volume, less energy-intensive, high technology products, such as 
pharmaceuticals, biotechnological and electronic products.

The energy usage scenarios indicate a marked trend towards the use of coal - by 
the year 2000 coal will account for about one quarter of all energy consumed, 
compared with only about 5% now. This trend reflects a long term policy to 
conserve indigenous gas reserves, the proportion of gas for energy use falling from 
nearly a half to just a quarter. The principal use of gas will then be in priority 
applications such as chemicals feedstock. The scenarios also assume that there will 
be a limited amount of electricity generation from nuclear energy, in the ultimate 
analysis, however, the scenarios are examined both with nuclear energy, and 
without. In the latter case, an equivalent amount of additional coal-fired generation 
is substituted.

The methodologies employed throughout the study have been well tried and tested 
by Metra Consulting Group Limited in over ten years of similar and related work 
in the Netherlands. They permit reliable quantification of environmental effects, 
based on the most up-to-date information, policy and opinion, and, in the views of 
Metra and of the Steering Group, the pollutants examined are the most relevant.

The principal categories of pollution examined are: -
1. Air Pollution
2. Water Pollution
3. Solid Waste
4. Radioactive Waste
5. Noise
6. Space

Within each principal category, there are several individual pollutants or groups 
of pollutants, which will subsequently be discussed in detail where this is 
appropriate.

Having employed the methodologies to quantify the pollutant emissions, the study 
then seeks to estimate the costs of abatement and/or control of these emissions, 
where this is both required and possible. These costs are additional to costs of 
environmental protection already built into the scenarios.

The details of the study, results and conclusions are summarized below.

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