Stichting Laka

Publicatie Laka-bibliotheek:
Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates up to 2005 (1988)

Auteur	IAEA
Datum	juli 1988
Classificatie	6.01.0.20/42 (BELANG MONDIAAL)
Voorkant

INTRODUCTION

This short bulletin, summarizing estimates of nuclear, electric and total energy 
trends, is issued annually, the exact date depending upon the receipt of statistical 
information related to the most recent past year from the Statistical Office of the 
United Nations in New York.

Estimates of future energy consumption extending over long periods of time are 
unavoidably subject to large margins of uncertainty and can provide no more 
than very general indications whose validity must be constantly subjected to 
critical review.

The energy forecasts carried out in increasing numbers over the last few years 
by international, national and private organizations are based on a multiplicity 
of different assumptions and different aggregating procedures, which makes 
their comparison and synthesis very difficult. These basic differences refer 
to such fundamental input data as:

- world and regional scenarios of economic development;
- correlation of economic growth and energy consumption;
- assumptions on physical, economic and political constraints applying
to energy production and consumption;
- future prices of different energy sources.

The projections presented in this bulletin are based on a compromise among:

- the national projections supplied by each country for a recent study by the
Nuclear Energy Agency of the OECD;
- the indicators of development published by the World Bank in its World
Development Report of 1987;
- the estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power growth continuously
carried out by the IAEA.

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