Publicatie Laka-bibliotheek:
Assessing the risk of terrorist attacks on nuclear facilities
Auteur | POST (Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology) |
6-02-0-10-03.pdf | |
Datum | juli 2004 |
Classificatie | 6.02.0.10/03 ((GEVOLGEN) MILITAIRE AANVALLEN) |
Voorkant |
Uit de publicatie:
Summary The events of September 11th 2001 heightened concerns over the potential for terrorist attacks on nuclear facilities. The purpose of this report is to provide Parliamentarians with an overview of what is publicly known about the risks and the consequences of such an attack, either at a facility in the UK, or overseas, with very direct impacts in the UK. This report identifies the main issues of concern according to reports in the public domain, and highlights areas where understanding is limited due to lack of publicly available information. The key points made in this report are as follows: • There is sufficient information in the public domain to identify possible ways terrorists might bring about a release of radioactive material from a nuclear facility. However this information is not sufficient to draw conclusions on the likelihood of a successful attack, or the size and nature of any release. • After September 11th 2001 additional protection measures have been put in place to increase security and to strengthen emergency planning at and around nuclear facilities. However, full details are not in the public domain. • Nuclear power plants were not designed to withstand some forms of terrorist attack, such as large aircraft impact, but existing safety and security regimes provide some defence. • Published reports suggest that, in a worst case scenario, the impact of large aircraft on certain facilities could cause a significant release of radioactive material with effects over a wide area. However, some analysts question the accuracy of these reports, and argue that accurately targeting these facilities would be difficult. • A successful attack would be highly unlikely to cause large numbers of instant fatalities. Although it would have the potential to affect extensive areas of land and cause large numbers of cancers, its impact would depend on how effectively appropriate contingency plans were implemented. • Even an unsuccessful attack could have economic and social repercussions and affect public confidence in nuclear activities such as power generation. • Published reports draw widely different conclusions about the consequences of attacks on nuclear facilities, due to differing assumptions about the size and nature of the release, weather conditions and efficiency of countermeasures. • Media coverage of the risk of releases of radioactive material from nuclear facilities focuses mainly on the consequences of worst case scenarios, without discussing the likelihood of their occurrence or explaining assumptions made. • Analyses carried out by UK nuclear operators to investigate the consequences of accidents at nuclear plants could be used to further understanding of the potential consequences of terrorist attacks. However these analyses are largely not publicly available. The scope of further work would be limited without such information. A four page summary of this report is available from POST